Average X in a bonus hunt

Average X — avg x, average multi — is the mean multiplier across the bonuses you have opened. It is the headline number on every hunt stream, and it is quietly computed two different ways by different trackers. The difference matters, so here is exactly what ours does and why.

Last checked

A single bonus round's multiplier is its payout divided by the stake it was collected at. Land 84.00 on a 2.00 stake and that round was 42x. Average X takes those per-round figures and reduces them to one.

Two averages, one label

There are two defensible ways to average multipliers, and trackers disagree about which one to show.

  • Mean of multipliers — work out each round's multiplier, then average those. Every round counts equally regardless of the stake it was collected at.
  • Stake-weighted — add up all payouts, add up all stakes, divide one by the other. Rounds collected at bigger stakes pull the average harder.

When every bonus in a hunt was collected at the same stake — the usual case, and the reason the convention exists — the two are identical. They only diverge on mixed-stake hunts.

Why the difference is not academic

Take a two-bonus hunt that cost 200. One round was collected at 0.20 and returned 40.00 — that is 200x. The other was collected at 10.00 and returned 20.00 — 2x.

MethodCalculationResult
Mean of multipliers(200 + 2) ÷ 2101.0x
Stake-weighted60.00 ÷ 10.205.9x
Break-even X200 ÷ 10.2019.6x
Same two rounds. One method reads as a session far past its target, the other as a session nowhere near it. The money says the hunt is down 140.

The mean of multipliers is the better description of how the rounds performed. The stake-weighted figure is the one that lines up with the money. Neither is wrong; quoting one and comparing it against the other is.

Unopened bonuses are not zeros

Average X is computed over settled bonuses only — rounds you have opened and recorded. A bonus you have not opened yet is an unknown, and folding it in as a zero drags the average down towards a result you have not had. A round that genuinely returned nothing is a real zero and does count.

This is why average X normally starts high and drifts as a hunt is played out: the first few rounds are a small sample, and a single large one moves the mean a long way. It is not a trend, it is a sample size.

Average X against break-even X

The comparison people actually want is: is the hunt level? That is a money question, and the honest way to answer it is to compare total returned against hunt cost, or to compare the stake-weighted multiplier against break-even X. Comparing the mean-of-multipliers average against break-even X works on a single-stake hunt and misleads on any other.

hunt result = total returned − hunt cost

The only figure that settles the session. Everything else is description.

Median, and why streams do not use it

Multiplier distributions are heavily skewed: most rounds land below the mean and a small number land far above it. That makes the median — the middle round — a better description of a typical round, and a much duller number to put on screen. If you are trying to understand your own sessions rather than present them, look at the median alongside the mean. Our tracker shows the largest recorded round and the hit rate for the same reason: three numbers describe a skewed distribution that one cannot.

Common questions

How do you calculate average X in a bonus hunt?
Divide each opened bonus's payout by the stake it was collected at, then average those figures. On 5scatter that is the average X shown on the hunt and in the tracker; every bonus counts once regardless of stake.
Why is my average X above break-even but the hunt still down?
Almost always mixed stakes. Average X weights every bonus equally, break-even is weighted by stake, so a large multiplier collected at a small stake lifts the average without returning much money. Compare total returned against hunt cost instead.
Should unplayed bonuses count towards average X?
No. Only settled bonuses are included. A bonus that has not been opened is an unknown, not a zero — counting it as one understates the average.
What is a normal average X?
It depends entirely on the games in the line-up and the stake, and it varies enormously between sessions. Our aggregate statistics page shows the distribution of recorded multipliers across hunts logged on the site, which is a more useful reference point than any single number.